Apple’s iPhone Air, released last fall, sold 7.7 million units across four quarters, according to IDC, a figure that represents a small fraction of the company’s total phone sales but one that analysts say could pave the way for a foldable iPhone. The device, which measures 5.6mm thick and weighs 165 grams, served as a testing ground for thinner design and component choices, according to Rishi Padhi, research principal at Gartner. Padhi said the Air proved Apple could make a thinner iPhone, identified which features consumers would not give up, and established a pathway for a foldable model. A foldable iPhone, reportedly called the iPhone Ultra, could debut at Apple’s Sept. 9 event in Cupertino, California, with a second-generation iPhone Air potentially following early next year.
The Air replaced the iPhone Plus, which offered a larger screen but little else to distinguish it from the baseline model. The Air gave consumers who did not want the Pro a middle-ground option that felt fresh, according to Padhi, addressing a gap for premium users who did not need Pro-specific features. However, the slim design came with compromises, including a single rear 48-megapixel camera, one speaker, and a smaller battery that could require charging before the end of the day, alongside 20-watt charging. Samsung’s Galaxy S25 Edge, which launched months earlier at $1,100, similarly scaled back camera and battery specs for a thinner frame.
Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of client devices at IDC, said the trade-offs were not enough for consumers to pay a premium price for slight thinness. He noted that the difference in thickness between the Air and a standard smartphone is not sufficient to justify compromising on battery and camera. The S25 Edge sold 2.3 million units over five quarters, making up less than 1% of Samsung’s phone sales in most quarters, with a peak of 1.8% in its first quarter. Jeronimo said that even when companies can deliver that form factor, consumers do not rush to buy thinness.
The progression from a slim bar phone to a foldable has precedent, as Samsung followed its 5.8mm-thick S25 Edge with the Galaxy Z Fold 7, which measures 4.2mm when open. The Galaxy Z Fold 8, which likely matches the rumored 4:3 aspect ratio of a foldable iPhone, demonstrated that most people can live without a telephoto camera, even at a $1,900 price. Jeronimo said that with Apple, consumers care less about specs when the product is a novelty, and they will be willing to compromise on camera because they want the foldable form factor.
He added that no other brand carries the same consumer loyalty as Apple, and that Android users tend to compare specs more heavily. Rumors suggest Apple will split its upcoming releases, debuting the 18 Pro models and the foldable iPhone in September, followed by the baseline model, iPhone 18E, and iPhone Air 2 in spring 2027. Padhi said a spring release for the Air would give it distinct marketing space and avoid cannibalization while easing supply chain pressures amid a RAM crisis causing component shortages.
Jeronimo noted that Apple’s control over its supply chain, from chipset to operating system, allows it to improve battery and camera performance on the next Air. He said Samsung is unlikely to release a follow-up to the S25 Edge, as it holds a precarious position in that company’s portfolio, and that a second-generation Air is unlikely to cannibalize a foldable iPhone. Instead, the Air could act as a gateway to the foldable, positioning it as a transitional step rather than a failed product category.
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