Elon Musk said on Tesla's earnings call Wednesday that the company is aiming for roughly 5 million vehicle deliveries a year by about 2030, adding that he believes Tesla has a good chance of getting there. The target was one of several sweeping claims Musk made during the call, alongside assertions that Tesla's Terafab chip factory would be the most valuable building in the world and that Tesla would account for a majority of passenger miles on Earth wherever it is permitted to operate freely.
The 5 million figure is well below the 20 million cars annually by 2030 that Musk projected in 2020. Hitting it would require Tesla to remake its business model, and not along the lines he is currently pursuing. Tesla's deliveries have fallen for two consecutive years, from a peak of 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.64 million in 2025, and the company currently lacks both the right vehicles and enough factory capacity to reach the goal.
Tesla has sold 1,324,681 vehicles so far this year, and would need 311,448 in the fourth quarter to avoid a third straight annual decline, a threshold that appears readily achievable given the company's habit of offering aggressive year-end deals to clear inventory. Analysts expect 1.82 million for the full year, which would be Tesla's best to date. Measured from a starting point of 1,636,129, reaching 5 million by 2030 implies a compound annual growth rate of about 25 percent.
Musk's strategy rests heavily on autonomy. Tesla VP for Autonomy Ashok Elluswamy said on the call that the company could launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving in the second quarter of 2027, and VP for Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy said Tesla would try to deliver its first steering-wheel- and pedal-less Cybercabs to customers, likely fleet owners, before the end of the year. Selling Cybercabs to fleets could open a new sales channel beyond individual retail buyers.
Tesla's current lineup is thin. More than 96 percent of sales come from just two vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla discontinued the Model S and Model X earlier this year to free space at its Fremont, California, plant for humanoid robot production, the Cybertruck has fallen well short of its initial targets, and Musk has called the Roadster a small project that will not move the needle financially. The Semi, as Tesla ramps production at its Nevada factory, could add tens of thousands of heavy trucks a year in sales to commercial delivery fleets.
The Cybercab faces regulatory hurdles, since governments worldwide must adapt to fully driverless cars and approval varies by state and country. Federal regulators are already examining whether Tesla skirted the law when it rolled out the Cybercab in Austin, Texas. Musk dropped plans for a $25,000 mass-market EV in favor of the Cybercab, and Tesla's market share in Europe and Asia is being eroded by affordable models from BYD, Geely, and Xiaomi. Tesla's existing factories can build only around 2.5 million to 3 million vehicles a year, meaning it would need to roughly double factory space or build up to three new Gigafactories.
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