Local bans on data centers across the United States have held up only about 2.3 gigawatts of projects, a small fraction of the capacity in the national pipeline, according to an analysis reported by Tom's Hardware. The firm's forecast for U.S. data center IT capacity has barely moved over the last 12 months despite the wave of local restrictions. It projects 38 gigawatts in 2027, more than double the 2026 figure. Of that, 22 gigawatts is under vertical construction and another 16 gigawatts is mostly financed with site work underway.
The firm defines a moratorium as a temporary legal pause, almost always a freeze on accepting new applications. It tracks more than 400 local instruments across 17 states as of September, including a few permanent zoning bans among the enacted measures. New York, Texas, Pennsylvania and Oregon all acted within under two months this summer. The firm's analysts tested each active restriction against records of thousands of projects, working alongside what it described as an army of state-of-the-art research agents.
The enacted moratoriums cover about 20 gigawatts, with only about 1.5 gigawatts delayed, and New York's pause adds 0.8 gigawatts more. The firm says moratoriums could delay the buildout but are not yet doing so at scale. It cites several reasons: moratoriums do not revoke existing approvals, short ones may expire before later projects need approval, and litigation or equipment lead times may already set the schedule. A pause moves a delivery date only if it reaches the parcel, is in force, overlaps the timeline and covers the use in a way the project cannot work around. Capacity already under construction or fully permitted is out of reach.
Michigan has 45 enacted moratoriums but effectively no pipeline exposure, and a Google campus there sits on industrial land already zoned for data processing. SpaceX's planned data center in Brownsville, Texas, is on land the city removed from its limits and thus beyond the city's moratorium. In one case that did work, a township adopted a pause before NorthPoint in Pennsylvania filed for its special exception, pushing local approval to next year; the company is still pursuing the project.
The 2.3 gigawatt figure leaves out the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality pause. Gov. Greg Abbott directed the TCEQ to issue no permits for data center projects, which law firm Bracewell says applies whether or not a project is in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas queue, and Bracewell expects the pause to last until ERCOT finishes its review in mid-December. Archie Hall of The Economist, quoted from a trip covering Michigan and Ohio, said moratoriums are much more bark than bite for now and put the bigger risk at deterring newer projects, affecting where data centers end up more than whether they get built. The firm's August poll found more Americans have a negative than positive impression of data centers.
The analysis concludes moratoriums would need to be materially more widespread and restrictive to delay the buildout. On the firm's weekly podcast last month, report author Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros said a strict state-level moratorium blocking even off-grid projects, citing Texas as an example, would worry the firm. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Abbott both found ways to bypass their legislatures for pauses they control and can revoke. The next move to watch is the TCEQ's compliance report to Abbott's office, due Monday.
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